Part of an ongoing article series on the impact of the Middle East conflict on Southeast Asia.
Introduction
Under the presidency of Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s role in the Middle East conflict is expected to reach a new level of commitment. The administration has signaled a shift towards a more hands-on approach, potentially intensifying efforts on many levels.
The Middle East Crisis
The situation in the Middle East has nosedived to a catastrophic low. One estimate by late October 2024 shows that the probable number of killed victims stood close to 45,000, among which were some 3,200 Palestinian children. This sky-high figure includes 130 journalists as well as media personnel and more than 200 humanitarian aid workers.
The number may continue to increase as time passes. Those who have escaped the shelling may yet succumb to disease, starvation, or a sheer lack of medical care.
Compounding this crisis is the displacement of the entire population, the destruction of infrastructures including refugee shelters and hospitals, and the spread of famine as aid workers are prevented from delivering life-saving humanitarian assistance.
The situation urgently calls for a ceasefire that also involves the return of the remaining Israeli hostages, the release of a commensurate number of Palestinian prisoners, the resolution of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the kickstart of negotiations towards a sustainable peace in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently resisted a series of efforts by countries pushing for a ceasefire, such as Qatar, Egypt and Israel’s closest allies – the United States and France. Key demands by these countries include a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, but both the Israeli and Palestinian sides have not made the negotiation process easier.
Even pressures by the United States on Israel have not netted much result, despite these amounting to basic demands such as a refrain from targeting civilians and a demand to address Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.
The conflict has also laid bare a flaw in the multilateral system, as sessions conducted and resolutions passed by the UN’s General Assembly as well as Security Council (UNSC) have only brought about baby steps towards resolving the ongoing crisis.
For example, Palestine’s bid in April 2024 for full membership in the UN was blocked by a US veto, although the resolution had majority support. To the international community, this was frustrating but not unusual. Since 1945, a total of 36 UNSC resolutions related to the Israel-Palestine conflict have been tabled; 34 of these have been vetoed by the United States, the other two by Russia and China.
The preferences and interests of veto power holders within the UNSC towards the conflict exemplify the imbalance of power within the system and hinder the process of getting a just decision.
What It Means to Indonesia
If the regional and global powers are unable to bring about a ceasefire, while the UNSC is paralyzed by the veto system, how can Indonesia realistically offer solutions to the crisis? Besides, what role does it play in this whole dynamic?
Indonesia has paid close attention to the situation in the Middle East since its own independence in 1945. A strong supporter of the Palestinian people’s plight for sovereignty and statehood, Indonesia was among the very first countries to recognize the Palestinian state in 1988, when the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) declared its establishment.
In relation to the ongoing crisis, Indonesia has undertaken some proactive steps.
When Israel intensified its military incursion into Gaza, Indonesia strongly expressed its concern at the devastation and suffering inflicted on the local population. Indonesia deplored the escalation of the conflict not only within the UN system but at every available international platform.
Before she left office in October 2024, former Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi denounced the failure of the UNSC to address Israel’s blatant violation of international law when its military attacked a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) post.
Indonesia also came to the rescue when the United States, Australia, Austria and other countries instigated a financial crisis inside the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) earlier this year by withholding their funding. In response, Indonesia tripled its contribution to the agency, reaching a total of US$1.2 million.
Indonesians are also closely following developments in the Middle East. Around 88% of respondents surveyed in 2021 knew and kept themselves informed about the Israel-Palestine conflict. When the war broke out in October last year, some two million Indonesians took to the streets to stage a big protest against Israel. However, as indicated by Hasbi Aswar in a previous article in this series, this show of solidarity appears to be waning lately.
Prabowo’s Likely Approach
The newly-minted President Prabowo Subianto is expected to be a “foreign policy president”, in contrast to his predecessor who adopted a laid-back approach in pursuing this area.
Former President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was widely criticized for his inward-looking worldview, which greatly diminished Indonesia’s presence on the global stage and muted what could have been a stronger Indonesian voice on not only the Israel-Palestine conflict but also other pressing global affairs.
There is a possibility that Prabowo would reverse this. Even during his presidential campaign, Prabowo already emphasized that he would take center stage in asserting and promoting Indonesia’s foreign policy. He has stressed that his support for Palestinian sovereignty is ironclad and pledged to open an embassy in Palestine.
Even during his stint as defense minister, he granted scholarships to 22 Palestinian students to study at the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia. During this period, Prabowo had also applied minor pressure on Jokowi regarding the Gaza situation, such as during an international conference in Jordan and the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. On both occasions, Prabowo affirmed Indonesia’s commitment to support, contribute to and facilitate all efforts towards a two-state solution, while announcing Indonesia’s readiness to extend more aid to Palestine.
In his first presidential speech, Prabowo repeated this very point and highlighted Indonesia’s efforts on Gaza during Jokowi’s term, stressing the injustice of the conflict. Throughout the speech, he did not mention any other international conflicts, indicating the intense focus that Indonesia and Prabowo himself are putting on this crisis.
Prabowo has also appointed his loyalist Sugiono as the new foreign minister, making the country’s foreign policy much more predictable. Unlike Jokowi’s top diplomat, Retno, Sugiono came from outside the diplomatic corps. With a background in the military, he is known to the Indonesian media as Prabowo’s “ideological son”.
He left service in the Indonesian army early to continue serving as Prabowo’s personal secretary before launching a political career by joining the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra), Prabowo’s political platform. Sugiono’s political background includes having served as deputy chair of the House of Representatives Commission on Foreign Affairs, which gave him some exposure to foreign policy matters.
Prabowo’s choice of a non-diplomat as foreign minister can be interpreted as his way of claiming to be the face of Indonesia’s foreign policy. Precisely how Sugiono will lead Indonesia’s course in foreign policy is still a matter of conjecture. Very likely he will be more active in addressing global and regional issues, reflecting Prabowo’s foreign policy activism.
Moreover, the pursuit for peace in the Middle East might be further facilitated by the creation of three deputy foreign minister offices, one of which will focus on the Islamic world and the Middle East.
Prabowo’s stance has also been acknowledged by the country’s foreign policy scholars, such as Prof. Dewi Fortuna Anwar who recently wrote that Prabowo would be a “hands-on president who plays an active role in shaping and implementing foreign policy during his tenure.”
Conclusion
In short, there is an expectation that Indonesia will double or triple its effort to help facilitate peace in the Middle East, particularly after Prabowo took over the leadership role.
The new administration’s next steps will be something to watch out for. Pronouncements such as an embassy in Palestine and other promises made during his presidential campaign will need to see a follow-through. Realistically, Prabowo will likely send more peacekeeping personnel, more aid to the conflict region and increase funding to the UNRWA for the time being. After the destruction of the Indonesian Hospital in Northern Gaza, the administration may consider infrastructure-building projects once the situation has calmed down.
For now, Prabowo’s Middle East approach will be under everyone’s watchful eye.
