Prelude
How does a political dynasty emerge in an electoral system?
Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines shows that this phenomenon could also occur where officials are elected instead of appointed, though at a great risk of undermining democracy.
To begin with, the dynamics of the presidential elections in both countries are already rife with problems and controversies. One of these issues was incumbents’ use of lawful political instruments and institutions to manipulate the rules, thus perpetuating their agenda for the transfer of power to their designated family members.
This article
The Jokowi Dynasty
The clearest example of political dynasty in Indonesia, at least in recent times, is the election of Gibran Rakabuming Raka as vice president. A scion of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Gibran started his political career as the mayor of Surakarta (Solo) before his stratospheric rise as Prabowo Subianto’s companion in the presidential race, all in the span of less than four years.
Gibran’s nomination as vice presidential candidate, of course, is not without controversy, as has been covered on these pages before. Uniquely, Gibran’s rise was “facilitated” by his new uncle, former chief justice Anwar Usman, who married Jokowi’s sister not too long before—an example of the reach of Jokowi’s familial ties and power.
Indeed, the Prabowo-Gibran pair received support from a wide array of supporters, including a big coalition of political parties and Jokowi himself. This translated to the pair’s big victory in the 2024 Presidential Election. However, the wide margin between the pair and other candidates – as well as the fact that the contest was concluded in one round – has invited questions and criticisms t
The Marcos and Duterte Dynasties
Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr is the son of former strongman Ferdinand Marcos Sr who ruled the country for 21 years (from 1965 to 1986). His deputy is Sara Duterte, daughter of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte, who ruled during the 2016-2022 term.
Bongbong entered politics when he became the vice governor of Ilocos Norte at the tender age of 22, when his father was still the president. He climbed his way up to the gubernatorial seat in the mid-1980s, though he also suffered from the downfall of the Marcos regime.
Meanwhile, the younger Duterte started out her career as the mayor of Davao. In 2018, she formed the Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP) party to serve as the platform for the Duterte dynasty.
Both paired up and competed in the 2022 election, a team formed by two great political families that have occupied executive powers before. With the backing of a coalition named the “UniTeam”, Bongbong was supported by Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, while Duterte was supported by the Lakas-CMD (Christian Muslim Democrats) party.
This strategy combined the power bases of both individuals—Marcos’ in the north (Luzon) and Duterte’s in the south (Mindanao), leading to their landslide victory where they garnered over 31 million votes, or 59% of the total.
Despite their combined
A Web of Influence
Political dynasties arise in both countries due to three reasons.
Firstly, the widespread and strong influence of individuals belonging to the same family. Usually, such individuals already occupy positions at the regional level and have access to networks of local elites.
Secondly, flexible legal and political systems that allow incumbents to arrange for their children or relatives to enter strategic positions.
Thirdly, the culture of political patronage and “big names” that encourage voters to continue voting for members of powerful families.
The Philippines has a long tradition of political dynasties in the executive power; the Marcos-Duterte pair only further consolidates this political trend. Meanwhile, Gibran’s role as vice president marks the beginning of a modern political dynasty in Indonesia’s central government.
The two case studies above showcase that political dynasties can definitely manifest in an electoral system, as long as members of the family are supported by a host of influential elites. In this system, a political dynasty
The trend in these two countries is also consistent with past research on the foundation of a political dynasty, which must secure three critical resources. These are: 1) financial resources, obtained from access to government projects; 2) coercive power, carried out by local leaders bound by a tradition of patronage and; 3) control over political parties, which are affiliated with the ruling family.
Paradoxically, a political dynasty takes advantage of the democratic system to build careers for family members in strategic positions, be it inside or outside the government. This is commonly found in countries that are still undergoing democratic consolidation, where government institutions and legal frameworks are still being established.
This is why family members of a dynasty can often be found occupying roles in business associations, political parties and organisations relating to youth, sports, and religion.
With each family member in an influential position, the political dynasty gains more power, building formal and informal political networks in various sectors, whose activities are supported by the material capacity accumulated by the political dynasty.
For example, Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, was elected as chairman of Partai Solidaritas Indonesia (PSI), sparking widespread speculation about Jokowi’s political ambitions, despite previously stating that he does not force his children to enter politics.
Similarly, Bobby Nasution (Jokowi’s son-in-law) holds the position of deputy chairman of Himpunan Pengusaha Muda Indonesia (Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association – HIPMI).
Meanwhile, during the elder Marcos’ rule, Imee Marcos (daughter of Ferdinand Marcos) served as chair of Kabataang Barangay (National Youth Council) from 1974 to 1986 while her father was in office. This organisation gave the Marcos family direct influence over the youth sector and allowed it to shape narratives and activities that aligned with the regime’s goals.
As for the Duterte dyna
Moreover, Sara served as a regional officer of the National Movement of Young Legislators (2007-2010) and also held a position on the National Executive Board of the League of Cities Philippines
These families exemplify the scope of political dynasty
Threats to Democracy
Democratic decline does not always come from coups that bring in autocrats but also from elected officials who harbour neither commitment nor respect for the existing democratic system.
When informal political networks are reinforced by unlimited material assets linked to clientelism, political dynasties become extremely influential in the formulation of public policy and economic dynamics in developing countries. Political intervention can be carried out by political dynasties whenever they feel that their dominance is being challenged by opponents. Thus, in any political dynasty model, the role of the public is not considered or taken into account, as what matters is the survival of the family.
In such a situation, pluralism as a democratic pillar, which represents diversity of voices and views in governance, will be sidelined. Governance and political process become a homogenous activity, with political institutions mobilised only to promote the interest of the concerned political dynasty.
Political dynasties are built by leveraging institutions within the democratic system, from regulating election, controlling the trias politica institutions, to exerting influence over the bureaucratic apparatus—all to advance personal and family interests. Indeed, the existence of a political dynasty threatens the independence of political institutions. Ironically, this democratic erosion is ushered in by the very people who come to power through democratic means. In the end, a political dynasty exists to perpetuate its influence, not as a service to the public. The consequence is clear: the quality of public service, such as healthcare, education and infrastructure would always be substandard.
