China’s persistent aggressive tactics threaten the territorial integrity of the Philippines and the international maritime order.
Maritime Security
Underneath all of President Rodrigo Duterte’s strongman bravado is a deep-seated insecurity, resulting in a widespread defeatist attitude. This defeatism, while can be traced back to Filipino’s culture and the country’s longstanding alliance with the United States, manifests in Duterte’s pivot to China policy and neutrality in the Ukraine crisis. It has also provided a suitable context that ushered the return of the Marcos family to power.
The Philippines has upheld international law on the South China Sea. President Rodrigo Roa Duterte declared that the 2016 Arbitral Award “is now part of international law, beyond compromise and beyond the reach of passing governments to dilute, diminish or abandon.”
Is a small, peace-loving country with constraints in its capabilities, in the face of a big power’s blatant disregard for good neighbourhood policy condemned to accept such behaviour?
Is Malaysia’s preference for quiet diplomacy in the South China Sea dispute sustainable? The numerous challenges and limited options it faces in responding to China suggests a need for reassessment for the long-term.
While stopping short of a full-fledged balancing act, Indonesia’s recent attempts to consolidate support for UNCLOS put a check on China’s revisionist challenges in the South China Sea.
The complexities of the South China Sea issue require Southeast Asian states to develop strong, persistent policies. These should entail all “what-ifs” including the withdraw of the US and its allies from the South China Sea.
This foreword launches the five-part “Tensions in the South China Sea” series. The series, featuring esteemed writers, aims to provide greater understanding of this complex issue.